“There’s a 40% chance of rain.” Here’s what that really means and how to make the best business decisions in the face of weather uncertainty.

Example of a probabilistic ensemble forecast. Forecasts are started with only slight differences in temperature, pressure, etc. But as time passes, the different forecasts grow further and further apart resulting in a range of potential, equally probably, outcomes. Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00630
Example of a reliability diagram for forecasting heat waves. On the horizontal axis, the forecasted probabilities are shown. On the vertical axis, are the corresponding actual probabilities. A good forecast should closely follow the diagonal line.

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